Thursday, October 11, 2007

Better Trades and Stability Vs. Profitability


Previously Earlier, we began a to investigate the need for stability in our trading business. We agreed that an important purpose for stability was having a more or less consistent ability to pay our bills, enabling our trading business to survive. Additionally, we outlined a strategy which had the ability to maintain our initial value (our emergency money) and the potential for making profits as well. The strategy; a 'balanced' straddle; amounted to finding a stock whose price 'oscillated' above and below a particular value. If that value was also a strike price for that stock, then we could straddle it, buying puts and calls at that strike with several months before expiration. As the price moved up and down, the value of our calls and puts moved up and down inversely, keeping the total value of the position roughly the same. In this way, our 'emergency fund' was more or less kept intact. In this discussion, we see how to draw a profit from such a position. Stability Implies A Constant Value If I have a minimum of six months required cash on hand much of the 'production stress' is removed from me. That is, if a budget of $5,000 per month is required to support my household, then having around $30,000 cash on hand goes a long way toward making me feel secure financially ... for about six months! Whatever we decide to do with that money once we've accumulated it, we have to insure that the underlying value is not subject to erosion. To that extent, then, those strategies and/or trades set aside for our 'stable money' should more or less insure that what ever amount of money we begin with is available to us at any time in the event of a financial emergency. Let's continue with our SLAB example. If we buy a $55 put and a $55 call when the stock price is at or very near $55, we're buying AT the money options and should expect to pay around $5 or $6 for those options having expirations about 4-6 months hence. If we buy 10 contracts each, we have about $10,000 - $12,000 invested in the position. We need to be very sure that money will REMAIN more or less intact and available to us should we need it. To meet MY requirements for six months 'budget-in-the-bank', I'd need three such positions. I would certainly NEVER put ALL $30,000 into a single position! Owning a put and a call (at the same strike price & expiration month) is called a straddle, an inherently 'neutral' position. To understand how a 'neutral' position can provide the safety and stability you need, refer to the chart of Silicon Laboratories stock above. During the last week of January, you'll see the stock gapped up, touching $55 that day. We'll assume that we entered a $55 straddle at that point. Follow the chart as the stock moves down. If we paid say, $5 for the puts and calls, then we can reasonably expect their premium to change in value as the stock moves. For example, around February 2, the stock has fallen to around $50. Those puts we bought for around $5 are now worth around $9 or $10. However, the calls we bought for around $5 are now worth around $1. No matter, the POSITION value is still worth around $10,000, what we PAID for it! So, Though the stock has fallen significantly in value, our STABILITY money is still there, ready to be used in an emergency. In other words, we could close the position and take our initial investment back at ANY time we wanted or needed to do so. Continue to follow the stock price. Notice near the end of February, the stock price has risen to around $60. At that time, our calls have risen to be worth around $9 or $10 while our puts have fallen in value to around $1. Again, we see that our emergency money is STILL intact, despite an almost $10 oscillation in the value of the stock. We can continue to do that for as long as the stock oscillates ... AND our options haven't expired. Stability Induces Safety, Not Profits . . . Unless . . . Up to this point, we've learned about the importance of having some emergency cash set aside. Additionally, we've learned about how straddles work and we've seen how the strategy produces a 'safe-haven' for some of this stability cash. But wouldn't it be nice if we were to figure out a way to make this money produce a profit in addition to the stability. Well, strictly speaking, a neutral position will not produce a profit unless the stock moves violently and a long way in either direction. Closing the position at either such 'extreme' (up or down) can produce enough profit in the one option to more than pay for the remaining option. That requires volatility, a concept not closely tied to the idea of stability. The biggest benefit of these stable positions is that stability itself, not the lure of profits. That said, there IS a way to pull profits from these positions, and LOTS of it! However, it requires us to temporarily LEAVE the safety of neutrality by closing out one side of the straddle, remaining in a now "directional' trade. If you sense a bit of increased risk and danger here, you're absolutely correct. Keep in mind that we can ill afford to gamble with this money! We can chase profits in one of two ways; short term and/or medium term. We'll begin with the least time-intensive method; medium term next time in part V. See ya then! If you think that I might be of help to you in sharpening up your trading skills, please give me a call at my support line, toll free 1-800-206-3935! Make it a great day! Bob Eldridge

Consciously Be This One That You Are


Heart in motion is the movement of this "you" that you truly are, flowing through this mindbody that you find yourself flowing through. It is the beyondness of the alive and indescribable "that" - which gave birth to and informs everything with itself - moving through and incarnating into its own manifestation.


This one is true of you right here and right now. You can consciously "be" this one - and "be" this one you must for there is no other way of realizing this "you" of you; you will not realize "you" through your attempt to be who you think you are; you will not realize this "you" by thinking about it - because this is who "you" are.


To be who you already are is going to have you surrendering, letting go and leaving alone this activity of trying to be what you are not - this unconscious and veiled attempt to try and be who you think you are.


You will start being led out of this prison of your own making through attraction and attention. You are attracted to being happier than who you think you are can deliver. You are attracted to the freedom of your heart because you know yourself to be not living this clarity on a momentary and daily basis.


No matter how happy you think you can be it can never come anywhere close to the enrichment of the one that is already true of you - this "you" of you that is already flowing through the eyes of this mindbody that you find yourself so intimately involved with.


Of course, not realizing this one leaves you drowning in the ignorance of not seeing the sheer beauty of the heart that you are busily being distracted from noticing as being the "you" that you already are; it leaves you drowning in the inattention of what you are up to on a daily basis.


Consciously "be" this one that you are - by bringing your conscious attention to the finding of this "you" of you that is currently flowing through the eyes of this mindbody that you find yourself flowing through and stopping at and as this one - and open to the changelessness and endlessness of such a magnitude that it will simply transcend the level of mind that you currently suffer, or carry on as you are.


All realizers have come to recognise that they are not who they thought they were; that there is no one to become anything - enlightened, awakened or otherwise. Who you are already is - right here right now. It is currently flowing through your eyes. To be this one requires your surrendering and letting go of who you think you are. It is a huge relief to no longer have to perpetuate the struggle of trying to be who you think you are. It allows you to simply get on with being "that" which is already and always right here; to be what is already true of you; the being of this "you" of you that is flowing through your eyes - the seer, the heart of existence itself, the divine one; and "that" is immense joy, freedom and delightfulness - despite the continuing cycles of arising that the mindbody may be going through.


The one that you are is not wracked by desire, fear, doubt and guilt - it is completely and momentarily free of all these and of everything; it is freedom itself.

Wednesday, October 10, 2007

Economics and Decision Making.


How do individuals and businesses in society make decisions? From the viewpoint of an economist there are three basic assumptions. Rationality, maximization and costs & benefit analysis.


Rationality: Economists start by assuming that economic decision makers act in a rational manner. What this means is that decision makers act according to reason, rather than in any odd way. For instance, if a person wanted to increase his or her income, it is assumed that he or she would try to work longer hours, rather than shorter hours. Equally if there were two identical products of washing detergent on the supermarket shelf, one price at $5.00, the other on sale at $3.00, it is assumed the shopper would buy the cheaper packet.


Maximization: A second economic assumption is that economic decision-makers attempt to maximize. This means that they try to get the best out of any economic situation. If a person chooses to work for 38 hours a week instead of 40 hours, everything else being the same including the wage, then he or she will choose to maximize leisure time by working 38 hours. Equally, a business will prefer to earn as much profit as possible, rather than a lower profit as possible.


Costs and benefits: In order to decide what is biggest in any economic situation, a decision-maker has to asses the costs and benefits of any particular course of action. For example what would be the costs and benefits of a decision by workers to buy a factory that they worked for if it was about to close down? The costs would be the money they had to put up to buy the factory from its owners. However, costs could be even greater. If the factory started to make a loss, they could not only loose all their money they had put in the firm but may have to commit more money to keep it going. Another cost would be the lost opportunity to find a new job. The benefits would be that they would still be in a job. They would get a salary. What’s more if the company were successful, they


These costs and benefits relate to the individual workers who are making the decision about weather to buy the factory. The economic model of decision maker than assumes these workers would decide to support buying or not buying by weighing up these costs and benefits and making a rationale decision about how to maximize their individual utility. This is the basis of an economic decision making model.

Friday, October 5, 2007

Profitable Forex Trading Strategies

By far regarded as the largest and the busiest market, the Forex market has tremendous profit potential. The Forex currency market is a lot different from the stock market and you need to have a very good understanding about the way this market functions. Its not surprising that there's a lot being said and written about Forex currency trading. In fact, those who are keen on mastering Forex trading skills can actually take up a Forex trading course and get formal Forex education. Before you set out to trade in the Forex market or the Foreign Currency Exchange Market, you must make sure that you have done plenty of research, studied historical trends, analyzed existing trends, and worked out profitable Forex trading strategies that can boost your Forex trade.

There is no standard strategy that can be safely applied when it comes to Forex currency trading. Basically, what may work for one may not necessarily fit your trading needs and you must therefore devise your own strategies that can guarantee success in the long run. You need to first analyze the market using a technical analysis approach or the fundamental analysis approach to plan your moves. While technical analysis refers to forecasting future movement based on past performance, fundamental analysis refers to studying current accounts and impact of imports and exports on currency flow.

Understanding how volatile this market is, every experienced trader understands that it is not practically possible to generate profits from every trade. However, as you study this market closely, you will be able to work out better strategies that can minimize your risk levels.

Use surplus money for trading
This market is speculative and "timing a trade' is crucial. Even a slightest mistake can cost you a lot of money. So, make sure that you use only surplus money in order to save yourself from financial wreck. One of the biggest mistakes many traders do is staking all their money in a single trade. If you are not sure, go for margin trading to enjoy more leverage.

Do some market research
Consult your financial advisor or a Forex broker who can tell you the exact status of the Forex market. You need to understand whether current trend is upwards or downwards, is it strong or weak, and how long has this trend been going on or is a new trend in the making. A trade without prior market research can lead to financial disasters.

Decide the time frame for trading
As a smart Forex trader, you must have a time frame in mind beyond which you wont like to trade and also decide an approximate exit price. This gives you a proper perspective and helps you to plan your Forex trade more efficiently. You need to therefore decide whether you would like to go for long term trading or intra-day trading. This will help you to determine which approach you must adopt for research and analysis. For instance, for someone trading several times a day, a daily graph analysis will be useless and the trader will require thirty minute or hour graphs to plan his exit. Another important factor that you need to take into account is the time periods when different financial companies enter and exit the foreign exchange market in order to study the market trends.

Choosing the right time to trade Timing is everything when it comes to Forex trading and once you have understood the market trends you need to immediately plan an entry. Rely on technical analysis to time your move and predict market movements.

If you are not sure about which Forex trading strategy to use, find a good Forex broker who can handle your financial portfolio for you

Self-Improvement and Success Go Together


How do you know if someone is willing and ready to work on self-improvement?


Obviously, you can't actually answer this question directly for everyone, because each individual is different and each will approach self-improvement differently. However, self-improvement is definitely something that every person can work on. How do you do this?


Each of us has individual goals, dreams and ambitions. However, we just don't know how exactly to go about it. In fact, if you’re like just about anyone, you might even have thought about this and wondered what exactly you can do. However, you still probably don't know just how to make a plan and take the actions you need to in order to achieve your goals.


Maybe you're someone who just has a very indistinct idea as to how you can improve yourself. Maybe you think you just need a better job, better opportunities, or a loving relationship. Whatever it is, you may think that if you attained your desire, you'd be happy.


If this is you, then it's obvious that what you are currently focusing on at least to some extent is external rather than internal, as it should be. In short, you think external factors rather than your own thoughts and actions are what make the biggest difference. However, this is not true.


Let's say that one of your biggest goals in life has been to "make more money". Maybe you think that if you're rich, you can relax, do whatever you want to, and "then" focus on self-improvement. However, this doesn't do anything to actually help you establish real goals and think about how you can actually achieve what you want in life by taking specific, concrete actions. In short, what you really need is a plan.


First, think about what you really want from life. Don't focus on broad-based "goals" such as a vaguely fuzzy idea that you want "more money," without truly defining what you really want in clear and concrete terms. And don't simply drift along day-to-day, just getting by, with no real defined path.


Now, if you're happy with your life just as it is, of course you shouldn't change it. Maybe you're happy earning "just enough" and getting by, with a relatively comfortable life and a relatively secure job. But for most, this isn't enough and they need something with more passion and more meaning. If this is you, self-improvement should be your goal.


It might surprise you to know that in fact, no matter what you do, you are constantly changing. We each face circumstances that make us grow, develop and learn new skills, even if we don't consciously decide to do so. Up until a certain age, most of us learn through some kind of formal education, at least through the end of high school. After formal education is over, we still continue to learn through informal "educational" experiences that occur for the rest of our lives. Everyone has to learn and grow in order to deal with ever-changing challenges we all must face as we go through life.


In years past, this type of ever-changing "education" happened at a relatively slow pace, and this meant that we could incorporate changes as we needed to and as we became ready for them. Now, however, modern life moves very, very fast and we often aren't ready to deal with the pace at which things come to us. We're overwhelmed, even though the changes we experience are beneficial as well as stressful. For example, we have more opportunities, but also more stress and change in today's modern life compared to previous years.


One thing that is much more apparent today than ever before is the presence of competition. Technology has meant that few jobs exist anymore that are simply skilled labor types. Jobs also usually do not last for someone's entire lifetime, as jobs in the past did. Very often, people have to change jobs once or more during their lifetimes, instead of staying in one career during their whole working lives as past generations did.


Because of this, today's working adults need to be able to stay competitive by regularly acquiring new skills and new knowledge, so that they stand out from the crowd. As one of those adults, if you want this to happen, you need to continually focus on self-improvement. If you do so, you'll be more likely to keep your job, acquire promotions within your given field, and/or be able to change jobs or even fields of expertise if necessary to stay employable.


If you commit to self-improvement and personal growth, you will go a long way toward determining your own future success.

How to Unlock Effective Communication Skills and Make a Great Impression


Effective communication skills are essential in all scenarios, whether in business dealings, romantic entanglements or family affairs, and being misunderstood is often a huge embarrassment. Do you find that you are often being misunderstood, or that you have difficulties getting your point across, when it comes to effective communication skills it is as much what you say as how you say it, while it is equally important that you learn what not to say. Being a good listener will also determine hoe effectively you are listened to, while of course the image that you portray will also impact how effectively you communicate in many if not all situations.


Empathy and listening are the initial steps to work on when developing effective communication skills. When you can actively listen and empathize or show understanding when being spoken to you stand a better chance of receiving the same courtesy when you speak. It is important not to interrupt a speaker even if you don’t understand of disagree. Take a mental note and wait until it is your turn to reply to discuss your query. Respect is a factor not often mentioned when discussing effective communication though when acting and receiving communication with respect and an open mind you are showing that you are keen to improve and you will better listened to when it’s your turn to speak.


Speaking clearly and cohesively will increase your chances of being understood. Use appropriate language for the situation and person. You will not be understood if you speak Japanese to and Irish man, so ensure that even your academic level of speech is fitting to the person you are directing a conversation with. Try to cut out unnecessary and over wording in sentences be concise and to the point. If it’s an important meeting where a certain number of topics need to be covered quickly, bullet pointing major points is a handy guide to lessen the amount of time wastage and make you look more professional, therefore keeping more people interested and listening to what you say.


When you enter a conversation with someone you are inadvertently encountering a person’s barriers to communication whether you are aware of this or not. Each person brings with them their own decisions and ideas concerning effective communication and when in a situation where you may be unfamiliar with the crowd you are directing it is necessary to effectively read and monitor the body language of your audience, if people are looking bored or uninterested this may be a clue that you are talking to much and need to reduce and simplify your message, while in other situations you may need to exacerbate a point several times to have your voice heard. The key is to read people well and this takes time but the more you try it the better you will get.


Communication is never as simple as simply speaking or writing you must be aware of personal opinion, taste and understanding, you must be able to read every situation and person perfectly so if you’re anything like me you have a long way to go but in the meantime listening and watching people who you admire for their communication is a good idea, this can help you by allowing you to compare and analyze how well others can articulate their messages and in turn lead you down the path to great communication skills so that you will learn to effectively utilize your communication skills in many if not all situations.

Monday, October 1, 2007

Are You a Good Negotiator?


We can tell that you're one of life's persuaders. We're not saying that you could sell ice to Eskimos, but you could probably spin a good story about the designer status of your ice. Perhaps you would stress that it makes the perfect accompaniment to a G&T, as this would allow you to offer a deal on the gin as well! We can tell that you're a sociable person and, whether you've noticed it or not, you probably have a well developed understanding of human nature, not to mention body language. If you want people to follow your lead you need to give them a good reason. "We should do this because…" could be your opening line, but you're not afraid of using your imagination to find ways to draw people into the rest of the sentence. However, be careful not to overdo it, as this approach can appear to be manipulative or deceptive, especially if presenting data that is biased to your cause. The good thing about your negotiating style is that you always make sure that the other side sees the full picture and feels positive about the deal.


Always focus on the other side's goals:

Typically people focus only on what they want to get out of a negotiation for themselves and about their own benefit. Try to focus only on why the other party is negotiating with you. What are they trying to achieve? What are their constraints? What would make them agree to your terms? What pressure are they exposed to? Let's say you're negotiating a new lease for your office space or apartment. Don't focus too much on what you're willing to spend. Find out if the landlord has lots of un-rented space, how much it will cost him to get a new tenant, how much it will cost him if the building is empty for a couple months while he's looking for new tenants. What's his risk that another tenant may not pay the rent on time while you are very good with your payments? Make a list of all those items before you start negotiating. Use them during the negotiation by asking probing questions if the situation allows for it.


Higher Authorities:

The higher authority approach is often used, especially when you are negotiating with bigger companies. Let's say you want to get a discount on a brand new designer jacket. The salesperson will probably say that he/she is not authorised to give that to you. Or they will tell you that it's the company's policy never to give a discount. Always question higher authorities and policies. People created those policies and all it takes is to find the person within an organisation that can change the policy for you. Ask to speak to that authority or to talk to someone who can change a policy. On most occasions a manager will come to speak to you. That manager will probably not want to waste much time and will also try to play out his power position and thus give you a discount – if only to show the poor salesperson how it's done by the big boss. Be persistent in your requests to speak to the so called authority or policymaker. On the other hand, you can use the "that's our company policy" approach yourself in a number of different situations, as it stops most people arguing. To pick up on the apartment lease example, you might say something like "I always get the first month free of charge when renting a new flat."


Never split the difference:

A very common and often used technique in negotiations is to split the difference. There is no reason why you should do this. If the other side suggests splitting the difference, use the authority approach to say that you never split the difference. The other party has already given up half way; there is no reason that should keep you from pushing them a little farther. Just make it your own policy to never split the difference. If the other party moves a big step towards you, give up a little space yourself, but not as much as they did. Always move towards the other person in little steps. It's important to give up a little to avoid a stalemate. But never give up more than you need to at once.


Be creative:

People often get stuck in a stalemate. You might need a better price while the other party cannot give up any more. Move away from the price entirely and focus on other areas. Let's say, you're buying a house but simply can't agree on a price with the vendor. Find out if there are other areas where both sides can give up a little that might benefit the other party a great deal. If you weren't under pressure to move within a certain time, you could allow the current owner to stay in his house for one or two extra months after you've paid your deposit. This might be very valuable if the other party needs to get some cash for a deposit on their new house, or if they need time to organise the move. Try to really understand the other party's situation and come up with creative ideas which create a win – win scenario.